Turkey plans to ramp up its wheat imports in the latter part of the 2024-25 marketing year because its local wheat supplies have significantly decreased. This change comes after earlier government actions aimed at handling excess wheat, as highlighted by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
In mid-2024, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) paused wheat imports from June to October. This policy forced flour millers to buy more wheat from within Turkey, leading to a 40% drop in imports during the first half of the marketing year, with imports totaling 1.9 million tonnes. As a result, wheat stocks are expected to fall to 2.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, a big drop from 5.5 million tonnes the previous year.
When the import pause was partially lifted in October, millers were initially required to get 85% of their wheat locally, a rate that has now been changed to 75%. This requirement is likely to stay in place until the harvest ends in May. Currently, all wheat imports are happening under a specific regime due to a steep 130% tariff on imports outside that regime.
The FAS estimates that Turkey’s wheat imports this year will total 5.8 million tonnes, mostly coming from Russia. Even with this increase, the import volume is expected to be about half of what it was last year.
Turkey is also seeing a significant drop in wheat exports, which are expected to fall by 41% to 7 million tonnes. This decrease is linked to the temporary halt on the import regime, the need to purchase domestically to access it, and difficulties faced by Turkish flour exporters trying to reclaim their market share in important areas like Africa and the Middle East, especially Iraq.
Between June and November 2024, Turkey’s flour exports dropped by 40%, totaling 1.7 million tonnes in wheat equivalent. The FAS believes that export activities might pick up in the coming months, thanks to the partial restoration of the import regime and potential new opportunities in Syria due to recent political changes.
For the 2024-25 season, the FAS predicts Turkey’s wheat production will be 19 million tonnes, down by 2 million tonnes from the previous year. This decline is mainly due to drier-than-usual weather affecting much of the country.
These changes highlight the shifting landscape of Turkey’s wheat market, shaped by local policies, international trade relations, and environmental factors.
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