HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s GDP is projected to grow by 7% in 2025, building on strong economic momentum from 2024, according to a forecast by United Overseas Bank (UOB), a Singapore-based financial institution.
The bank highlighted that domestic factors such as production, consumer spending, and visitor arrivals will drive economic activity, particularly in the first half of 2025. However, UOB also noted that uncertainty related to Việt Nam’s increasing reliance on exports, which exceeded $400 billion in 2024, could pose risks in the latter part of the year.
In 2024, Việt Nam’s real GDP continued its upward trajectory, expanding by 7.55% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, following a revised growth rate of 7.43% in the third quarter. The country’s economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, surpassing the 6.5% growth target and marking an improvement from 5.1% growth in 2023.
UOB also pointed out that inflation remained below the official target of 4.5% for most of 2024, with core inflation under control. This development may provide the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) with room to ease monetary policy. However, exchange rate concerns have emerged as a challenge for the SBV, which is expected to maintain its policy rates in response to pressures on the domestic currency.
UOB’s report suggests that the SBV is likely to keep its main policy rate at 4.5% to mitigate risks arising from the global economic environment, including the future direction of U.S. Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions.
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