Vietnam’s 2023 Exports Experience Decline to EU and US Amid Global Economic Headwinds

Vietnam’s export performance faced a notable downturn in 2023, particularly in shipments to the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), registering an estimated decrease of 9.6% at around $166 billion compared to 2022. Imports mirrored this trend, with an estimated 9.1% decrease, reaching nearly $41 billion.

Despite these challenges, Vietnam maintained a positive trade surplus of $125 billion for the year, distributing $33 billion with the EU and $92 billion with the US. Tạ Hoàng Linh, head of the European and American Market Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), attributed these fluctuations to the global economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the subsequent slow and uneven recovery in the latter part of the year.

The IMF’s recent report highlighted that the EU and US faced inflation and geopolitical pressures, coupled with shifts in behavior and consumption habits, impacting their import levels. In the first 10 months of 2023, the EU reduced imports from non-EU markets by nearly 16%, and the US reduced imports from global markets by 6%.

Vietnam’s export turnover to the EU and US experienced a significant decline. Exports to the EU reached $43.7 billion, down by 6.7% year-on-year, while exports to the US amounted to $96.9 billion, marking a 12.4% decrease year-on-year. Notably, certain markets, such as the UK, countries in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), countries in the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), and some smaller markets, saw growth of 3.1%, 12.7%, and 10%, respectively.

Key export items, including machinery, equipment, spare parts; phones, computers, components; computers, electronic products, components; textiles; leather shoes and bags; wood and wood products; and seafood, experienced an average decrease of over 10% compared to 2022. However, some categories, such as cameras, camcorders, components, and various types of iron and steel, showed growth, indicating a diversified export profile.

Despite the trade challenges, Vietnam’s effective Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with European and American partners, including the EVFTA, CPTPP, and UKFTA, have continued to provide positive impacts, securing advantages in trade and investment activities in 2024.

In terms of trade promotion, the Vietnamese commercial counsellor in Canada highlighted Vietnam’s leverage within the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to enhance exports to Canada, projecting exports to exceed $5.7 billion in 2023.

The European and American Market Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade emphasized its commitment to closely monitoring global market dynamics, providing early warnings to the business community, and offering policy recommendations to the government for informed responses. This approach aims to navigate the evolving economic, political, and policy landscape affecting Vietnam’s trade.

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