Supply Chain Reports – The global trade landscape faces a potential upheaval as U.S. President Donald Trump announces plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025. This dramatic escalation in trade restrictions could trigger a new trade war, slow worldwide economic growth, and significantly impact regional economies, including Thailand.
Economists warn that the move may upend supply chains, disrupting manufacturing and distribution networks across Asia. According to Aat Pisanwanich, an independent economist specializing in international trade and ASEAN markets, the tariffs are primarily driven by China’s dominance over processed rare earth exports, critical to the U.S. tech industry. China controls approximately 90% of the global supply, giving it substantial leverage in the dispute.
“The proposed 100% tariffs could mark the beginning of a renewed trade war unless diplomatic dialogue is reestablished,” said Aat. “Markets will closely watch the upcoming South Korea summit, but there is currently no sign of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.”
Already, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods average around 51%. Doubling this rate would have profound consequences for industries, consumer prices, and inflation, potentially reducing U.S. GDP growth from 1.8% to a range of 1.0–1.3%. Meanwhile, China’s exports to the U.S. could fall from $435 billion in 2024 to approximately $200 billion, representing a 50–75% decrease.
China has been preparing for these shifts by diversifying export markets to Asia, ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America. In September 2025, Chinese exports rose 8%, despite a 10% decline in shipments to the U.S. Tariffs and additional trade measures, such as port fees and semiconductor export restrictions, have motivated Chinese companies to reroute their products to alternative markets.
For Thailand, the repercussions could be substantial. A redirection of Chinese goods toward regional markets may exacerbate the trade deficit with China, potentially rising from 1.6 trillion baht in 2024 to nearly 2 trillion baht in 2025. During the first eight months of the year, Thailand’s trade deficit with China had already reached 1.37 trillion baht, with expectations it could hit 1.7 trillion baht by year-end.
“Thailand may face direct pressure on its manufacturers as Chinese goods flood regional markets,” Aat explained. “While some Thai exports, such as automobiles, electronics, and processed foods, may benefit from increased demand in the U.S., sectors reliant on Chinese imports for re-export—chemicals, plastics, electronic components, rubber, and machinery—could see weakened demand.”
Experts emphasize that Thai businesses must adapt quickly by diversifying export markets, improving supply chain efficiency, and enhancing competitiveness to mitigate the impact of the tariffs and broader global trade disruptions.
The 100% tariff proposal highlights the fragility of international supply chains and underscores the importance of strategic planning in the face of escalating trade tensions. For manufacturers, exporters, and policymakers, proactive measures are critical to maintaining resilience in an increasingly volatile global trade environment.
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