As the European Union (EU) commits to achieving net-zero emissions and addresses the pressing issue of climate change, its strategy involves trade agreements to secure essential raw materials for a green transition. This approach, while aligned with environmental goals, raises questions about the compatibility of a green transition within the framework of capitalist expansion. It also underscores the complexities associated with global competition and the imperative to ensure a steady supply of critical raw materials, often linked to extractive production models.
Introduction
The urgency of addressing climate change is underscored by global leaders, including United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, who emphasized the need to act swiftly in response to the climate crisis. Climate change is now widely recognized as a reality, and the detrimental impact of fossil fuel consumption on global warming is a well-established fact.
A survey commissioned by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 2020 revealed that a significant majority of Western Europeans and North Americans acknowledge the existence of a climate emergency. Leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, have stressed the need to transition away from an economic growth model centered on fossil fuels. In her words, an economic model relying on fossil fuels has become obsolete, and decarbonizing economies is imperative.
By November 2022, 87 countries, responsible for over 85% of global emissions, had committed to achieving net-zero emissions within this century. However, many of these pledges are predicated on the assumption that energy consumption will continue to grow, aligning with the trajectory of capitalist expansion. The aspiration to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 while maintaining current economic growth models hinges on a fundamental transformation of industries reliant on fossil fuels to those powered by clean technologies. This shift entails a substantial increase in the production of electric vehicles and the widespread adoption of renewables like solar panels and wind turbines.
This transformative process is often referred to as a “green transition.” While initiatives related to renewable energy and electric vehicles began over two decades ago, they are now accelerating rapidly due to several factors, including heightened awareness of climate change and the need to address economic challenges in mature capitalist economies.
However, beneath the surface of the green transition lie complex dynamics. The urgency of climate change is being leveraged to justify substantial public investments, credit guarantees, and incentives for private companies perceived as key drivers of the green transition. Yet, this framing of the green transition also obscures the concurrent rise of militarism, even along Europe’s borders. Furthermore, critical “green” raw materials are increasingly serving the needs of the expanding arms and security industry.
Simultaneously, the structure of the capitalist system and its modes of production and consumption remain largely unquestioned. Instead, major economic powers such as China, the USA, and the EU are engaged in intense competition to lead the green transition, often offering support programs and subsidies to bolster their respective industrial sectors. The EU’s European Green Deal, the USA’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and China’s Made in China 2025 are all examples of ambitious subsidy programs designed to accelerate the transformation of domestic industries and economies.
However, a significant challenge lies in securing primary raw materials and metals essential for this transition. This challenge is particularly acute for the EU, which consumes a substantial portion of global metals production despite having only 6% of the world’s population. Moreover, the EU’s heavy dependence on metal imports, primarily from China and global South countries, poses a vulnerability in its green transition strategy.
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