Vietnam’s rice export prices have been on a downward trend since December 2024, according to the Vietnam Food Association. As of February 12, the price of Vietnamese 5% broken rice was recorded at $397 per tonne, a decrease from $425 per tonne for Thai rice, $413 per tonne for Indian rice, and $402 per tonne for Pakistani rice.
For 25% broken rice, Vietnam’s export price stood at $372 per tonne, which is comparable to Pakistan’s price but $34 lower than Thailand’s and $22 lower than India’s.
After peaking at $700 per tonne in mid-August 2023, rice export prices have dropped to their lowest levels in three years. The price of 5% broken rice has fallen by $303 per tonne, a reduction of over 43%.
Previously a strong competitor in the global market, Vietnam’s rice now ranks lowest among major rice exporters. Phan Mai Hương, a rice market analyst, explained that the price surge in 2023 and early 2024 was driven largely by India’s export ban. Historically, Vietnam’s white rice was priced around $400 per tonne, while fragrant rice ranged between $500 and $600 per tonne.
Despite the recent sharp drop, Hương pointed out that the current prices are not unusually low, as India has resumed rice exports. She also noted that the global price decline had been anticipated due to rebounding supply levels.
Phan Văn Có, Marketing Director at Vrice Co Ltd, agreed that abundant production from competing rice-exporting countries, particularly India, has intensified market competition. This has created challenges for exporters, especially those who committed to sales contracts in late 2024. Some customers are now seeking renegotiations or postponements to lower prices, putting pressure on suppliers.
However, businesses had already agreed to purchase prices with farmers, and any further price cuts would result in losses. As a result, trade activity in the Mekong Delta region has slowed.
With the winter-spring rice crop nearing harvest, which is the highest output of the year, local farmers typically sell their freshly harvested rice immediately due to limited storage facilities. Exporters without new orders face financial constraints that make it difficult to stockpile rice, further complicating market conditions.
Despite the current price dip, experts believe the downturn is expected to be short-lived. Hương emphasized that global demand remains strong, with buyers from China and Africa already exploring new contracts. She also noted that Vietnam’s winter-spring harvest is considered the highest-quality crop of the year, and as it peaks, importers will actively seek purchases.
Rice exporters remain optimistic, with Hương noting that low trading activity does not necessarily reflect decreased demand. Countries like the Philippines and Malaysia continue to seek reasonably priced rice, particularly in the mid-range quality segment, while the Middle East and Africa have shown increased preference for Vietnamese rice.
As the winter-spring harvest concludes in March and April, prices are expected to rise gradually as importers finalize their purchasing decisions.
To alleviate the current strain, businesses are hoping for bank support to facilitate rice procurement and temporary storage. This would help prevent supply bottlenecks and enable companies to stockpile rice for future exports at improved prices.
In the long term, experts recommend that Vietnamese exporters diversify their markets and customer base to reduce reliance on a few major buyers. Additionally, tapping into distribution channels and niche markets with demand for premium rice could enhance economic returns and strengthen the global reputation of Vietnamese rice.
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