JAKARTA – Following the victory of Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s February presidential election, China has initiated a series of diplomatic gestures towards the president-elect, reflecting its interest in fostering bilateral relations with Indonesia. The Chinese embassy in Jakarta marked the occasion by sending a cat tree and a stuffed toy for Prabowo’s cat, Bobby, as featured on the pet’s official Instagram page. This move is part of a broader charm offensive from China, which is currently the second-largest investor in Indonesia, following Singapore.
China’s ambassador to Indonesia personally visited Prabowo to offer congratulations. Furthermore, Prabowo has recently visited Beijing, accepting an invitation from President Xi Jinping. Observers suggest that China’s approach towards the president-elect and current defence minister is aimed at ensuring the continuation of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s policies that fostered strong economic ties with Beijing.
Yet, there is speculation among analysts that while Prabowo may maintain Jokowi’s policies, his approach could introduce unpredictability, especially if regional geopolitical tensions escalate, such as those in the South China Sea, where multiple overlapping claims exist among ASEAN member states and China. Relations between China and the Philippines have deteriorated over these claims, compounded by Manila’s strengthening relations with the United States.
International relations professor Yohanes Sulaiman from Jenderal Achmad Yani University noted Prabowo’s potential to adopt a more assertive stance on the South China Sea, in line with his nationalist reputation. Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a foreign policy expert, suggested that China might be concerned about Prabowo prioritizing security concerns, differing from Jokowi’s economic-focused leadership. Prabowo’s recent visit to Beijing, as stated by his ministry, was in his capacity as defence minister. During the visit, he expressed support for enhanced Indonesia-China relations and a desire to uphold President Jokowi’s policies of friendship with China. Post-meeting with Xi, Prabowo emphasized his view of China as a pivotal partner in regional peace and stability and expressed intentions to strengthen defence cooperation.
Throughout his campaign, Prabowo committed to sustaining the economic and foreign policies of Jokowi, who implicitly supported Prabowo’s candidacy. Notably, Jokowi’s son joined Prabowo as his vice-presidential running mate. During his tenure, Jokowi actively pursued Chinese investment, particularly for Indonesia’s developing electric vehicle industry, leveraging the country’s vast nickel reserves essential for EV battery production. China has made significant investments in this area, with leading companies establishing operations in Indonesia.
China’s financial involvement in Indonesia is notable, with investments totaling $7.4 billion in 2023, exceeding the United States’ $3.3 billion. President Xi has expressed a strategic and long-term perspective on relations with Indonesia, as exemplified by the funding of Indonesia’s high-speed railway project. Prabowo has reiterated Indonesia’s commitment to a non-aligned policy and maintaining positive relations with both China and the United States, underscoring the country’s intention to remain a good neighbor both regionally and globally. He has also expressed admiration for China’s educational strides and anti-corruption efforts.
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