Việt Nam has experienced a significant increase in coffee export turnover to most of its key markets since the beginning of 2024. In the first seven months of 2024, Việt Nam exported an estimated 964,000 tonnes of coffee, generating nearly US$3.54 billion. While this represents a 13.8% decrease in volume compared to the same period last year, the value of these exports has risen by 30.9%. In the second quarter of 2024, turnover from many of Việt Nam’s traditional coffee markets grew year-on-year, with the exception of Italy. Despite a general decline in the export turnover of most coffee varieties compared to the first quarter of the year, Arabica coffee exports bucked the trend, showing growth.
Compared to the same quarter last year, the export turnover of various coffee varieties has shown significant growth, with increases ranging from double to triple digits. The Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, along with the Việt Nam Industry and Trade Information Centre, has forecasted a decrease in Việt Nam’s coffee exports during the remainder of the third quarter due to limited supply. An increase in supply is not expected until October, when the 2024-25 coffee harvest begins.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Việt Nam’s coffee output for the 2023-24 crop year is estimated at 1.47 million tonnes, marking the lowest level in four years and representing a 20% decline from the previous crop year. The 2024-25 crop year is also expected to see reduced output due to unfavorable weather conditions. With limited inventory carried over from the previous year, Việt Nam is projected to have approximately 200,000 tonnes of coffee available for export from now until September. Despite these challenges, the Vietnamese coffee industry is likely to benefit from higher prices.
Bloomberg has reported that global Robusta coffee prices are expected to remain on a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about limited supply from Việt Nam. The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) has also noted that the world could face a shortage of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) of Robusta coffee by 2040.
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