The United States’ recent tariff measures affecting key partners in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) — Japan, India, and Australia — have raised concerns among analysts about the potential implications for ongoing and future cooperation within the group.
While Japan and India are making progress toward finalizing new trade agreements with the United States, analysts suggest that uncertainty surrounding these negotiations could continue to cast a shadow over relations. These tensions may remain a key topic during the upcoming Quad summit scheduled for September in New Delhi.
The Quad, which consists of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, was established to promote a free, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. However, economic issues, particularly around trade policies, are increasingly influencing the dynamics among the member countries.
“The imposition of tariffs by the United States — particularly those targeting key sectors such as steel, semiconductors, and electric vehicles — has introduced friction among its closest allies, including Japan,” noted Pratnashree Basu, an associate fellow specializing in Indo-Pacific affairs at the Observer Research Foundation.
Under the current tariff regime, Japan faces a 24 percent tariff on its exports to the United States, while India is subject to a 26 percent tariff. Although these so-called “reciprocal” tariffs have been temporarily suspended until early July, concerns remain about their potential reinstatement and longer-term impacts.
In addition to the suspended tariffs, a 25 percent duty on automobiles — a key sector for Japan’s export-driven economy — remains in place. Furthermore, a 10 percent baseline tariff rate continues to apply to Japan, India, Australia, and other U.S. trade partners.
Analysts point out that these trade tensions highlight the growing complexity of balancing economic interests with broader strategic goals in the Indo-Pacific. As Quad members navigate the evolving global trade environment, there is a heightened focus on ensuring that economic cooperation continues to support regional stability and prosperity.
While there is optimism about resolving trade issues through dialogue, maintaining momentum toward deeper economic collaboration will likely require careful negotiation and policy adjustments from all sides.
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