Eurozone Annual Inflation Sees a Rebound, Rising to 7% in April

Eurozone annual inflation experienced an upturn in April, reaching 7 percent, as reported by the European Union’s statistics agency. This marks the first increase after a consistent decline over the previous five months, with consumer prices slightly rising from 6.9 percent in March. Analysts anticipated stability, but the unexpected rise may influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision on interest rates, set to be announced on Thursday.

The ECB has been consistently raising rates since July of the previous year to tackle elevated inflation levels. Energy prices, propelled by Russia’s assault on Ukraine, played a significant role in driving up consumer prices across the eurozone, reaching a peak of 10.6 percent in October. While inflation subsided due to a slower increase in energy prices, it still remains well above the ECB’s 2 percent target.

Food and drink prices, contributing to the inflationary pressure, continued to climb, but the pace of the increase moderated to 13.6 percent in April, down from 15.5 percent in March, according to Eurostat. Energy prices rebounded with a 2.5 percent increase after a 0.9 percent decline in March.

ING economist Carsten Brzeski attributed the unexpected increase to a rebound in energy price inflation and slightly higher service price inflation. The eurozone’s core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, saw a slight decline to 5.6 percent in March from 5.7 percent the previous month.

Among the 20 eurozone countries, Luxembourg reported the lowest inflation rate at 2.7 percent in April. Germany, the largest economy in the EU, experienced a slip in inflation to 7.6 percent from 7.8 percent in March. In France, consumer prices rose to 6.9 percent in April after recording 6.7 percent in March.

Anticipation surrounds the ECB’s decision on interest rates, with analysts divided on the potential size of the increase. Some expect a 50 basis points (bp) rise, consistent with the three previous meetings, while others suggest a downshift to 25bp. Brzeski, predicting a 25 basis points increase, emphasized the importance of addressing the sticky inflation data in light of recent economic indicators. Capital Economics’ Andrew Kenningham noted that the latest figures do not decisively influence the ECB decision but speculated the possibility of a hawkish surprise with a 50bp hike.

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