supplychainreport – The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its economic outlook for the United States, citing rising trade costs linked to recent tariff policies as a key factor in slowing growth.
According to a report released Tuesday, the OECD now projects U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Global growth is also forecasted to moderate, falling from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, marking a return below the consistent 3% global growth seen annually since 2020.
This marks a downward revision from the OECD’s previous March forecast, which had anticipated U.S. growth of 2.2% for 2025 and global growth of 3.1%.
“The global economy has shifted from a period of resilient growth and declining inflation to a more uncertain path,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in a statement. He emphasized the importance of international cooperation to preserve the benefits of a rules-based global trade system.
Trade Policy and Supply Chain Impact
The OECD report attributes the forecasted slowdown to increased trade costs and policy uncertainty, which have introduced new challenges for global supply chains. Following tariff announcements and adjustments, businesses are said to be experiencing disruptions, with the organization warning of potential slowdowns in trade volume and a cautious investment climate.
“Global trade growth is likely to slow substantially over the next two years,” the report noted, citing front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and delayed business investment as contributing factors.
In recent months, evolving import duties have affected a range of sectors, with industry stakeholders monitoring legal rulings and policy updates that influence international trade dynamics.
Inflation Outlook
While inflation in the U.S. has recently declined to 2.3%—down from a peak of 9.1% in 2022—the OECD cautioned that elevated trade costs could place upward pressure on prices. However, the report noted this may be mitigated by softer commodity prices in the near term.
Several retailers and manufacturers have already responded to the changing trade environment with price adjustments. Walmart, for instance, announced product price increases in May, citing multiple factors, including higher import-related costs. Other companies, such as Target, Nike, and Subaru, referenced a range of influences behind their pricing decisions, including market evaluations, operational shifts, and consumer demand.
As global economic uncertainties continue, the OECD stressed the need for stable trade policies to support growth, innovation, and long-term resilience in international markets.
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