The global trade landscape is undergoing significant changes as geopolitical tensions, including the US-China trade war and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, complicate trade relations and economic strategies for countries worldwide, notably affecting smaller economies such as Bangladesh.
The increasing fragmentation of global trade, marked by countries prioritizing national interests and erecting barriers, is raising concerns among international economic leaders. According to Gita Gopinath, the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this trend towards economic division threatens to instigate a new cold war, potentially nullifying the temporary gains some countries hope to achieve. Gopinath, in a Foreign Policy article, emphasized the necessity of adhering to general economic principles to avoid descending into a dire economic situation.
In 2023, approximately 3,000 trade-restricting measures were introduced, nearly tripling the figure from 2019. This surge in geopolitical risks over the past five years has jeopardized the free flow of capital and goods. Similarly, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows are aligning more closely with geopolitical affiliations.
Trade now represents 60% of the world’s GDP, a stark increase from 24% during the Cold War, indicating that economies are more interlinked and the implications of trade fragmentation are more severe than in previous decades. The IMF has projected that the global economic impact of such fragmentation could result in a loss of up to 2.5% of GDP for trade and around 2% of GDP for FDI, with developing countries bearing a disproportionate burden.
Despite these challenges, some countries are finding opportunities amid the shifting trade and investment landscape. The deteriorating trade relations between the USA and China have redirected trade and capital flows, benefiting countries like Mexico and Vietnam. Mexico has surpassed China as the top exporter to the USA, while Vietnam has become a significant recipient of Chinese FDI.
The geopolitical realignment has also affected global trade patterns, with Russia turning to India for imports of bananas, moving away from traditional suppliers like Guatemala following geopolitical developments.
Trade analyst Masrur Reaz, Chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, notes that the current geopolitical climate is creating both challenges and opportunities for global trade. The pandemic has already prompted nations to reconsider their reliance on single-source trade, with the current geopolitical shifts intensifying the search for alternative trading partners. Terms such as “nearshoring” and “friendshoring” have emerged, reflecting trends towards sourcing from neighboring countries or trading more with allied nations.
Bangladesh, according to Reaz, has the potential to strengthen trade relations both bilaterally and regionally, leveraging tariff privileges from countries like China, India, Japan, and Australia. However, to capitalize on the changing global trade order, Bangladesh must embrace technological advancements to improve productivity and quality.
As global trade continues to evolve, the IMF’s Gita Gopinath suggests that a nondiscriminatory, plurilateral approach through the WTO could facilitate deeper integration, diversification, and resilience among nations. The challenge of economic fragmentation highlights the urgency for collective action to support vulnerable economies and prevent the world from splitting into rival economic blocs, a sentiment echoed by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
As trade dynamics continue to shift, the resilience of Asia and its complex trade relationships with both Western allies and Russia will be closely watched, with China remaining a pivotal player in the global supply chain. Bangladesh, positioned strategically between major Eastern and Western economies, stands to gain from maintaining balanced bilateral relations amidst these changes.
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