S&P Global Ratings has revised Bangladesh’s long-term rating outlook from stable to negative, reflecting concerns over potential deterioration in the country’s external liquidity in the coming year and ongoing pressures on foreign exchange reserves. Despite maintaining Bangladesh’s BB- long-term and B short-term sovereign credit ratings, S&P has flagged the possibility of a downgrade if the nation’s external debt or liquidity metrics worsen.
Bangladesh’s economy is projected to grow annually between 6% and 6.4% from 2024 to 2026, following a GDP growth rate of 6.03% in the financial year ending June 2023. The country, however, is grappling with challenges in paying for imported fuel due to a dollar shortage. This financial strain has led to a significant reduction in dollar reserves, which have decreased by over a third since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, standing at $29.85 billion as of July 19.
To stabilize its external financial situation over the next year, Bangladesh requires favorable trade and financial flows. The country has already secured a $4.7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this year to cope with the increased costs of importing fuel and food.
The negative outlook from S&P indicates worsening economic conditions that could deter foreign investment and diminish the confidence of international lenders. Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, highlights that this scenario could lead to heightened uncertainty and increased costs due to the growing risks associated with repayment.
Moazzem emphasizes the need for measures, particularly in managing subsidies and energy imports, to strengthen the foreign exchange reserve situation. He suggests that the government should take bold steps, including exploring domestic gas resources and substituting energy imports for power and agriculture with solar-based and other renewable energy solutions. These actions are crucial to address the main weaknesses in Bangladesh’s current economic landscape.
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