The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has reported a notable increase in China’s share of India’s industrial goods imports, rising from 21% to 30% over the past 15 years. This trend underscores the growing dependence on Chinese products, including telecom, machinery, and electronics, raising strategic concerns for India.
The report indicates that India’s trade deficit with China has expanded significantly. From 2019 to 2024, India’s exports to China remained steady at approximately $16 billion annually, while imports surged from $70.3 billion in 2018-19 to over $101 billion in 2023-24. This resulted in a cumulative trade deficit exceeding $387 billion over five years.
GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava emphasized the need for India to reassess its import strategies to create more diversified and resilient supply chains. This reevaluation is crucial not only to mitigate economic risks but also to bolster domestic industries and reduce dependency on imports from China, particularly given the geopolitical landscape.
The report details that China’s export growth to India has outpaced India’s overall import growth, with Chinese exports growing 2.3 times faster than India’s total imports from all other countries. In 2023-24, China accounted for 15% of India’s total merchandise imports, with $100 billion of imports from China falling into major industrial product categories.
Key sectors experiencing increased dependence on Chinese imports include electronics, telecom, electrical products, machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, textiles, clothing, automobiles, medical equipment, and more. For example, in the electronics, telecom, and electrical sectors, China’s contribution reached $26.1 billion, representing 38.4% of India’s imports in these categories.
Similarly, China supplied $19 billion worth of machinery, accounting for 39.6% of India’s imports in this sector. The chemical and pharmaceutical sectors saw imports of $15.8 billion from China, making up 29.2% of the total in these industries. For plastics and related articles, China’s share stood at 25.8%.
Srivastava highlighted that a significant portion of imports from China includes capital goods and machinery, pointing to a critical need for focused research and development in India. Additionally, intermediate goods like organic chemicals, APIs, and plastics constitute 37% of imports, indicating a need for industry upgrades. Consumer goods account for 12% of imports, while raw materials are less than 1%.
The report also notes that many products imported from China, such as textiles, apparel, glassware, furniture, paper, shoes, and toys, are categories where micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in India could potentially increase domestic production.
Chinese companies are increasingly involved in India’s energy, telecommunications, and transportation sectors, significantly impacting areas such as smartphones, electronics, electric and passenger vehicles, solar energy, and engineering projects.
The report warns that as more Chinese firms enter the Indian market, the volume of industrial product imports from China is likely to accelerate. This trend could impact domestic auto and electric vehicle manufacturers, as well as firms involved in the EV value chain and battery development.
In summary, the GTRI report calls for strategic action to address the growing trade imbalance and dependence on Chinese imports, advocating for stronger domestic capabilities and diversified supply chains to enhance India’s economic resilience.
