The latest Industrial Trends survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reveals that cost and pricing pressures in UK manufacturing, while still high, have started to ease. During the quarter leading up to January, average unit costs grew at their slowest rate since April 2021, and domestic selling price inflation reached its lowest point since July 2021. However, both cost and price inflation remain significantly above their long-term averages.
Manufacturers reported that their output volumes remained stable during the quarter leading up to January, following a slight decline in the previous quarter. New orders saw no significant change, while the volume of total order books dropped further below the norm. This suggests that part of the support for output came from manufacturers working through their backlogs. Looking forward, manufacturers anticipate growth in new orders and output volumes over the next quarter. Nevertheless, the share of firms indicating that orders or sales could constrain output reached its highest point since April 2021.
Key findings from the survey, which included responses from 321 manufacturing firms, are as follows:
- Business sentiment experienced its fifth consecutive quarterly decline, although the rate of decline was much slower than the previous three months leading up to October (balance of -5%, compared to -48%).
- Export optimism also decreased but at a less rapid pace than in October, which marked the steepest decline in two years (balance of -22%, compared to -31%).
- Output volumes were stable during the quarter ending in January, following a decrease in the previous three months leading up to December (weighted balance of -1%, from -9%). The mechanical engineering and food, drink & tobacco sub-sectors witnessed increased output, which offset decreases in chemicals, metal manufacturing, and motor vehicles & transport equipment. Firms predict brisk growth in output volumes over the next three months (+19%).
- For the next three months, demand-side factors were viewed as more likely to constrain output (57% of respondents cited orders or sales as a likely constraint, compared to 43% in October; average of 71%). Supply-side constraints, while still significant, have improved: shortages of skilled labor (38%, from 49%; average of 16%); shortages of materials/components (44%, from 54%; average of 11%).
- Total new orders remained relatively stable during the quarter leading up to January (balance of -3%, from -8%). However, the volume of total order books continued to fall further below the norm (balance of -17%, from -6% in October). Manufacturers expect new orders to rise in the next three months (+9%).
- Average cost growth, while still exceptionally strong, eased during the quarter ending in January, with costs increasing at their slowest pace since April 2021 (balance of +64%, from +82% in October; average of +17%). Cost growth is projected to slow further in the quarter ending in April (+53%).
- Average domestic selling price inflation also eased but remained elevated during the quarter leading up to January (balance of +37%, from +50% in October; compared to an average of +2%). Domestic price inflation is expected to remain elevated over the next three months (+41%).
- Employment numbers continued to rise during the quarter ending in January, albeit at a slower pace (+14%, from +26% in October). Firms anticipate further headcount growth in the next three months (+24%).
- Investment intentions for the year ahead varied. Manufacturers expect to increase investments in training and retraining (+20%, from +14%), plant and machinery (+8%, from +6%), and product and process innovation (+6%, from +7%). Investment in buildings is projected to decrease in the year ahead (-9%, from -5%).
Stay current with supply chain report news at The Supply Chain Report. For international trade tools, see ADAMftd.com.
#IndustrialTrends #CBISurvey #UKManufacturing #CostInflation #PriceInflation #ManufacturingSurvey #OutputVolumes #NewOrders #SupplyChainConstraints #ExportOptimism #EmploymentGrowth #InvestmentTrends #MechanicalEngineering #FoodAndDrink #LaborShortages #SkilledLabor #ManufacturingGrowth #DomesticPriceInflation #BusinessSentiment #OrderBooks #ProcessInnovation #TrainingAndRetraining #PlantMachinery #ProductInnovation #CostGrowth #ManufacturingInsights #UKEconomy #BacklogManagement
