According to a recent report by the World Trade Organization (WTO), global merchandise trade is anticipated to experience growth in 2024, following a decline in 2023 attributed to high energy prices and inflation. The WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report forecasts a 2.6 percent increase in world merchandise trade volume for 2024 and a 3.3 percent increase for 2025, contrasting with a 1.2 percent decrease in the previous year.
The report also highlights potential risks to this growth, including regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could drive food and energy prices higher, along with uncertainties in economic policy. In terms of regional performance, Africa’s exports are expected to see the most significant rise, with a projected increase of 5.3 percent, although this growth starts from a relatively low base.
The WTO’s outlook suggests that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will stabilize, with an estimated increase of 2.6 percent in 2024 and 2.7 percent in 2025, following a slowdown to 2.7 percent in 2023 from 3.1 percent in 2022. The report further anticipates a gradual decrease in inflation in 2024 and 2025, which should lead to a recovery in real incomes in advanced economies and an increase in the consumption of manufactured goods.
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