A recent study conducted by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) suggests that upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) could have a significant impact on the European Union’s agri-food trade balance. The analysis, focusing on 10 new trade agreements either concluded or under negotiation, provides insights into potential changes in trade patterns and economic dynamics within the EU agricultural sector.
According to the study, EU exports to the 10 partner countries are projected to increase notably under different scenarios. In a conservative estimate, exports could rise by 27%, equivalent to EUR 3.5 billion, while in a more ambitious scenario, the increase could reach 38%, or EUR 4.8 billion, by 2032. These projections account for various liberalization patterns within the trade agreements and are compared against a baseline trade projection for the same year without the implementation of the said agreements.
The study focuses on FTAs involving countries such as Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay), New Zealand, Chile, and Mexico, among others. These agreements aim to diversify EU trade sources and enhance the resilience of food supply chains by opening up new markets and facilitating trade flows.
By 2032, it is anticipated that the 10 partner countries and regions will contribute significantly to EU agri-food exports and imports, accounting for a notable share of trade volumes. Without the implementation of the trade agreements, these partners are expected to represent a substantial portion of both EU exports (EUR 12.6 billion) and imports (EUR 32.2 billion) in the agri-food sector.
Overall, the study suggests a balanced increase in EU agri-food trade, with exports and imports experiencing growth across various commodities. Certain sectors, such as dairy, pig meat, wine, and processed agri-food products, are expected to benefit from expanded export opportunities. Conversely, increased competition from FTA partners may pose challenges for sectors like beef, sheep meat, poultry, rice, and sugar.
Despite potential impacts on specific sectors, the study highlights the overall positive effect of the trade agreements on the EU’s agri-food trade balance. Projections indicate a modest increase in the trade balance, with gains ranging from EUR 25 million to EUR 311 million across different scenarios.
The study also addresses the implications of the UK’s trade agenda, which includes agreements with countries like Australia and New Zealand. While these agreements may impact EU export opportunities in the UK market, the overall effect on the EU’s agri-food trade balance remains positive, particularly under an ambitious FTA approach.
This latest analysis adds to previous studies conducted by the JRC, providing policymakers and stakeholders with valuable insights into the cumulative economic impact of EU trade agreements. By leveraging the opportunities presented by these agreements, the EU aims to enhance its trade relationships, promote economic growth, and ensure the resilience of its agri-food supply chains in a globalized market environment.
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