IMF Revises Growth Forecast for Emerging Asia, Highlights China Property Risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its growth forecast for developing Asian economies in 2024, expressing optimism about India’s performance while cautioning against risks arising from China’s property sector crisis.

According to the IMF, emerging economies in Asia are expected to grow at 5.2% in 2024, marking a 0.4 percentage point increase from its previous October forecast. However, this growth projection remains slightly cooler than the estimated 5.4% growth anticipated for 2023.

China’s economic outlook has also been revised, with the IMF anticipating a 4.6% growth in 2024, a 0.4 percentage point upgrade from its October forecast. The organization attributed this adjustment to stronger-than-expected growth in the previous year and increased government spending to counter natural disasters in China.

Despite the overall positive adjustment for China, the IMF issued a warning regarding the deepening crisis in the country’s property sector. Concerns were raised about potential disruptions from tax hikes and spending cuts, emphasizing that these factors could lead to growth disappointments.

The IMF stressed the need for comprehensive restructuring policy measures to address China’s property challenges. It cautioned that real estate investments might decline more than anticipated and persist for an extended period, impacting both domestic growth and that of trading partners. Possible unintended fiscal tightening and reduced household consumption were also highlighted as potential consequences.

While acknowledging the ongoing challenges, the IMF suggested that China could experience a more robust recovery if the government implements effective property sector reforms or provides larger-than-expected fiscal support to boost consumer confidence and demand.

The property sector crisis in China has shown limited signs of improvement, with recent developments including the liquidation order for debt-laden developer China Evergrande and measures announced by China’s central bank and finance ministry to enhance liquidity for property developers.

In contrast to China’s concerns, the IMF remains positive about India’s growth, projecting a robust 6.5% growth for both 2024 and 2025 due to resilient domestic demand. This represents a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from the October forecast for both years.

The IMF also adjusted its global growth forecast, citing the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy and fiscal support measures in China. It anticipates global growth of 3.1% in 2024, up 0.2 percentage points from its October projection, followed by a 3.2% expansion in 2025.

Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized the resilience of the global economy in the second half of the previous year, anticipating a positive carryover into 2024.

In terms of inflation, the IMF projects global inflation of 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. Developed economies are expected to experience a cooling of inflation to 2.6% in 2024, while emerging economies are projected to see a marginal decline to 8.1%.

Discover supply chain news insights on The Supply Chain Report. Enhance your international trade knowledge at ADAMftd.com with free tools.

#IMF #GrowthForecast #DevelopingAsia #India #China #EconomicOutlook #PropertySector #FiscalPolicy #GlobalEconomy #Inflation #EmergingMarkets #EconomicResilience #ConsumerConfidence