The recent decision by India, the world’s largest rice exporter, to halt non-basmati white rice exports has significantly impacted global rice prices, which have soared to a 15-year high, as per the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This move, announced on July 20, coincided with Russia’s suspension of its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, further escalating global food commodity prices.
The change in India’s export policy is expected to affect the availability and prices of various staples such as wheat, soya beans, corn, and maize, which often serve as substitutes for rice.
India’s pivotal role in the global rice market is underscored by its domination in rice exports, accounting for approximately 40% of the global total. It is estimated to export around 20.5 million tonnes of milled rice in the current year, significantly outpacing other major exporters like Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States.
The infographic series by Al Jazeera sheds light on India’s journey to becoming a key rice exporter and the countries that heavily depend on its rice exports.
Rice, known for being water-intensive, requires about 3,000 to 5,000 litres of water per kilogram of crop, making it three times more demanding in water usage than wheat. Originating from ancient China, rice cultivation has evolved with thousands of varieties worldwide, differing in grain size, shape, color, texture, and cooking properties.
India’s export ban is aimed at stabilizing domestic prices and preparing for the potential impacts of the El Nino weather pattern, which can lead to droughts and reduced yields.
Significant importers of Indian rice include countries from Africa and the Middle East. Benin, Senegal, and Kenya are the top importers of non-basmati rice from India, while Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq are the leading buyers of basmati rice.
In response to India’s export ban, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its global rice trade forecasts for 2023 and 2024 downward. The USDA now projects a milled rice trade of 52.9 million tonnes for the 2024 calendar year, a decrease of 3.44 million tonnes from earlier forecasts.
This shift in the rice market dynamics, primarily due to India’s export restrictions, is expected to keep rice prices high in the short term. The FAO anticipates that any significant recovery in global rice trade by next year would depend on the lifting of India’s export limitations.
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