A new study from the University of Exeter, published in Nature Food, reveals that climate change is increasingly threatening the future of banana production for export. According to the research, rising temperatures could make it economically unfeasible for many areas across Latin America and the Caribbean to continue growing bananas by 2080.
Bananas, a vital export crop valued at $11 billion (£8.9 billion) annually, play a key role in the economies of several countries. However, the study predicts that by 2080, over 60% of current banana-growing regions will face difficulties in maintaining production unless significant efforts are made to address climate change.
The research also highlights that factors such as labor availability and infrastructure pose additional challenges to adapting to climate change. Many banana farms are located near densely populated areas and ports, limiting opportunities to relocate to more favorable climates.
Professor Dan Bebber, who led the study, emphasized the broader implications of the findings, stating, “Climate change is not only an environmental issue but also a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods. Without substantial investment in adaptation strategies, including improved irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties, the future of banana production for export could be at risk.”
The research team used satellite imagery to assess banana production in Latin America and the Caribbean with high resolution and mapped areas most suited for banana cultivation. Their results indicate that climate change will reduce the ideal conditions for banana growth in many regions, while increasing exposure to extreme temperatures for workers.
Countries like Colombia and Costa Rica are expected to face the most severe impacts, as rising temperatures make these regions less suitable for banana cultivation. In contrast, Ecuador and parts of Brazil are projected to remain viable producers due to less severe climate changes in these areas.
The study suggests several strategies for adaptation, including enhancing irrigation infrastructure, breeding heat- and drought-tolerant banana varieties, and providing support to producers in managing climate risks.
Dr. Varun Varma of Rothamsted Research developed the remote sensing algorithms used in the study, with additional support from José Antonio Guzmán Alvarez of the Costa Rican organization CORBANA, which assists the national banana industry. The research was funded by the Global Food Security Programme and Horizon 2020.
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