China’s economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2025, with its GDP rising by 5.4%, surpassing economists’ forecasts of 5.1%. This growth continues a trend of robust export-driven performance seen at the end of 2024. Despite the ongoing challenges in global trade relations, including external economic pressures, China remains confident about its long-term growth prospects.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), highlighted that the country’s economy had a solid start to the year, though it faces a more complex external environment and limited domestic demand growth.
China’s economic performance comes as the nation continues to navigate global trade tensions. While domestic challenges such as a struggling property sector and cautious consumer spending persist, the government remains optimistic about China’s resilience.
In the first quarter, consumer spending exceeded expectations, with retail sales up 5.9% in March, and industrial output grew by 7.7% compared to the same period last year.
Although Beijing set a growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, economists are cautious about meeting this goal due to expected headwinds in the export sector. Exports surged by 12.4% in March but are expected to face challenges in the coming months, largely due to continued external trade restrictions.
Experts, including economists from UBS and Goldman Sachs, have downgraded China’s growth forecast, with many anticipating that the government will implement stimulus measures to support the economy. Investment in infrastructure and fiscal policies are likely to boost domestic consumption, helping maintain a growth rate above 4%.
China has also been diversifying its export markets in response to ongoing trade dynamics. The share of China’s exports to the U.S. has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024. This diversification, along with a strong performance in the first-quarter foreign trade data, suggests that China’s export sector remains resilient despite external pressures.
As part of its broader trade strategy, China has been strengthening ties with Southeast Asia, its largest export market, and promoting itself as a stable economic partner. Chinese President Xi Jinping is currently on a diplomatic tour in the region to reinforce these relationships and advocate for the stability of global trade systems and supply chains.
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