Analysis Suggests Possible Peaking of Red Sea Supply Chain Inflation

The surge in supply chain inflation triggered by the Red Sea crisis and ongoing attacks on shipping vessels may have reached its peak on key global trade routes, according to recent data analysis from Xeneta, a leading ocean and air freight benchmarking platform. The latest trade data indicates a potential decline in rates on ocean routes from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, while prices for U.S.-bound trade are still on the rise.

Xeneta’s analysis of average short-term rates for forty-foot containers in February compared to the last round of general rate increases (GRIs) in January reveals a slight decline. Rates for containers traveling from the Far East to the Mediterranean are expected to be $5,950 under February’s GRIs, down from the recent peak of $6,050 on January 16. Similarly, rates for containers on the Far East to North Europe route are projected to be $4,820 at the start of February, slightly below the peak of $4,850 on January 16.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta market analyst, suggests that the lower-than-anticipated February general rate increases indicate that ocean carriers have been compelled to negotiate down with shippers. This suggests that some shippers are pushing back and managing to agree to lower rates, potentially leading to a flattening or decline in rates sooner than expected in February.

While overall rates are influenced by an average of all transactions within each trade route, logistics CEOs have the ability to negotiate prices down, contributing to the slight decrease. Peter Sand, chief analyst for Xeneta, emphasizes the variability in outcomes as individual negotiations take place between shippers and ocean service providers. He notes that different shippers are impacted differently, leading to uncertainty in the market.

For U.S. companies, shipping rates from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast are still increasing, indicating that they may not be experiencing the same relief as other trade routes.

Despite concerns about potential opportunistic pricing by ocean carriers during the Red Sea crisis, analysts point out the challenges faced by both carriers and shippers. The market is navigating uncertainties caused by the diversion away from the Suez Canal and disruptions in creating new shipping networks. Some shippers have seen existing contracts honored, while others have faced surcharges or had contracts thrown out.

The Red Sea crisis has introduced additional challenges, with Sea-Intelligence noting a deterioration in the average delay for late vessel arrivals. However, following Lunar New Year, ocean carriers have the opportunity to realign vessel services, considering longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope. This may contribute to a flattening or reduction in rates, albeit with a slight delay.

While capacity in U.S. ports should be sufficient to handle the Red Sea diversions, concerns are emerging about potential friction points in the supply chain. Rail-bound container dwell times are reportedly increasing, and there are warnings of potential congestion and challenges in chassis availability, affecting truck appointments for container pickups.

As the impact of the Red Sea crisis unfolds, the supply chain is navigating a complex landscape, and organizations with deeper pockets may fare better than smaller companies and suppliers in the lower tiers of the supply chain.

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