American consumers and businesses absorbed most of the financial impact of the tariffs implemented in 2025, according to multiple economic analyses released over the past year.
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that through August 2025, 94% of the import taxes were passed on to U.S. firms and consumers. By November, the “pass-through” rate had eased to 86%, but researchers concluded that domestic companies and households continued to shoulder the bulk of the burden.
“In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025,” the researchers wrote.
A separate analysis published Feb. 6 by the Tax Foundation estimated that the tariffs equated to a tax increase of approximately $1,000 per household in 2025, with households projected to pay an additional $1,300 in 2026. The group described the measures as the largest U.S. tax increase since 1993.
During the 2024 campaign and in subsequent public statements, President Donald Trump maintained that the financial burden of tariffs would fall primarily on foreign producers rather than U.S. consumers.
However, economists have widely noted that tariffs—taxes on imported goods—are often shared between exporters and importers, depending on how prices adjust. According to the New York Fed study, most exporters did not significantly reduce their prices in response to the tariffs. A 94% pass-through rate indicates that for a 10% tariff, exporters typically reduced prices by about 0.6%, leaving the majority of the added cost to be absorbed domestically.
Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that tariffs contributed approximately 0.7 percentage points to the U.S. inflation rate through late 2025. For example, without the tariffs, inflation in September may have been closer to 2.3% instead of 3%, according to the November paper.
Price data reflects increases across several categories of imported goods. From January 2025 to January 2026, household furnishings and supplies rose 3.8%, furniture and bedding increased 4%, and dishes and flatware climbed 5%.
While some exporters lowered prices and some U.S. companies sought alternative suppliers or absorbed part of the added costs, studies indicate that a significant portion of the tariffs ultimately filtered through the supply chain. The NBER paper estimated that roughly 20% of the tariffs directly reached consumers, with the remainder absorbed at earlier stages by businesses.
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