A recent report by WTW’s in-house risk advisory and crisis support service, Alert:24, has identified threats against individuals and assets, political repatriations, and kidnappings as the leading incidents reported by clients in the past year. The Crisis Management Annual Review indicates that 26% of all reported incidents involved threats, while political repatriations and kidnappings each accounted for 21% of the total.
The year 2024 experienced a record number of elections, with incumbents in many leading democracies witnessing significant declines in vote share. Approximately 80% of these incumbents lost ground compared to previous elections, a trend largely attributed to economic challenges, notably high inflation. This political climate led to numerous protests and turmoil across both democratic and authoritarian nations.
Looking ahead to 2025, the report anticipates that rising populism, divisive rhetoric, and socio-economic tensions will continue to incite violence and unrest, particularly in Europe. The security landscape is expected to remain dominated by terrorism threats and geopolitical challenges. Notably, acts of violence against European officials surged in 2024, a trend projected to persist. In North America and Europe, terrorism is likely to continue originating from lone actors inspired by radical ideologies, employing low-sophistication tactics. Additionally, the United States may face civil unrest and political violence amid escalating social tensions. In the Asia-Pacific region, the emergence of active assailant incidents has become a significant concern over the past year and is expected to remain a critical area of focus.
Other key findings from the report include:
- Persistent Trends: In the United States, the frequency of active assailant attacks remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, with workplace violence and mass shootings being prevalent. The threat from lone-wolf terrorism persists, often involving online radicalization. In Latin America, organized crime remains widespread, with criminal enterprises frequently intertwining with political structures, leading to increased incidents of kidnapping, particularly express kidnappings, notably in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.
- Sustained Conflict Levels: Overall, client incident notifications decreased by 21% in 2024 compared to the previous year, which was marked by sustained conflict and catastrophes. While significant events like the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Sudanese Civil War continue to drive demand for risk mitigation services, no new crises of similar magnitude emerged in 2024.
- Regional Incident Distribution: Africa accounted for 27% of total incidents reported to Alert:24, all within Sub-Saharan Africa, with no single country disproportionately represented. Latin America followed, more than doubling its share of incidents from 13% to 24%, with Haiti notably accounting for approximately 20% of these events after reporting none the previous year. Europe experienced a reduction in total incidents from 14% to 8%.
The report underscores the significant impact of political unrest on global commerce in recent years, suggesting that organizations capable of swiftly identifying and responding to political risks within their supply chains may gain a competitive advantage.
Jo Holliday, WTW’s Global Head of Crisis Management, stated, “We continue to see clients impacted by a wide range of incident types across a broad geographical footprint, affecting both their people and physical assets. Looking ahead, political instability and its consequences are likely to persist. Clients who accurately assess, manage, and act upon these challenges are better positioned to navigate the volatile risk environment effectively.”
The report emphasizes the importance of combining relevant insights, research, risk identification, quantification analytics, and proactive crisis management to ensure organizational stability and resilience in navigating these challenging times.
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