Less‑than‑truckload (LTL) freight pricing climbed to a new peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, highlighting carriers’ continued ability to maintain elevated rates despite relatively weak underlying demand.
The LTL rate‑per‑pound component of the index stood at approximately 67.9 % above its January 2018 baseline in Q4, a sequential increase from Q3 and a substantial year‑over‑year gain. This represents a new high for the pricing series, underscoring sustained pricing discipline among carriers even as shippers seek cost savings and demand remains muted.
Analysts say the strength in LTL pricing reflects carriers’ reluctance to offer discounts to stimulate volume, instead leveraging tight network capacity and yield management strategies to protect margin. Although freight demand has been subdued and manufacturing indicators remain contractionary, disciplined rate setting has allowed carriers to pass through higher relative pricing per unit of freight moved.
Looking ahead, the index is expected to moderate modestly in the seasonally softer first quarter of 2026, but still remain well above historical baselines—with forecasts suggesting continued year‑over‑year increases for the ninth consecutive quarter. This trajectory points to ongoing pricing resilience in the LTL segment even as broader economic headwinds persist.
For shippers and logistics planners, the record LTL pricing underscores the importance of strategic freight procurement and capacity planning as carriers maintain leverage in a market where volume growth remains limited but pricing power is high.
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