A new report titled “Trading with Intelligence: How AI Shapes and is Shaped by International Trade” examines the potential effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on global trade. The report highlights how AI can reduce trade costs, reshape trade in services, increase trade in AI-related goods and services, and redefine economies’ comparative advantages. It also addresses the growing fragmentation of AI regulations and its potential impact on trade, particularly for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, in the report’s foreword, emphasized that the document aims to promote discussions on how the World Trade Organization (WTO) can support the development and deployment of AI, while also addressing concerns related to regulatory fragmentation. She pointed out two key questions the report seeks to answer: how can the WTO ensure that the benefits of AI are widely shared, and how can the challenges of AI be addressed through global coordination?
The report outlines that AI could reduce trade costs related to logistics, supply chain management, and regulatory compliance. For example, AI could automate customs clearance, streamline border controls, navigate trade regulations, and help predict risks. By reducing trade costs, AI has the potential to make global markets more accessible, particularly for developing economies and smaller businesses.
The report suggests that, under an optimistic scenario of widespread AI adoption and high productivity growth by 2040, global real trade growth could increase by nearly 14 percentage points. In a more cautious scenario, with uneven AI adoption and lower productivity, trade growth is projected to rise by just under 7 percentage points. High-income economies are expected to experience the largest productivity gains, although lower-income economies could still benefit from AI in reducing trade costs.
Additionally, AI is expected to have a significant impact on trade in services, especially digitally delivered services, which could see cumulative growth of nearly 18 percentage points in an optimistic AI adoption scenario.
However, the report also highlights potential risks, including the possibility of an increasing divide between economies and firms in terms of access to AI, as well as challenges in data governance and ensuring the trustworthiness of AI systems. Furthermore, it calls for clearer guidelines on how AI interacts with intellectual property (IP) rights.
The report stresses the importance of coordinated efforts to prevent regulatory fragmentation and ensure that the benefits of AI are equitably distributed. It also notes that the WTO can play a key role in facilitating discussions and negotiations to address the trade-related aspects of AI governance.
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