India has exported a significant portion of its sugar to Sri Lanka and Afghanistan, even as concerns grow over a potential decline in domestic production.
According to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA), as of March 11, approximately 41% of India’s sugar exports have been shipped to Sri Lanka and over 22% to Afghanistan, out of a total of 81,307 metric tonnes of white, raw, and refined sugar. An additional 70,000 metric tonnes are awaiting shipment.
“Neighboring countries prefer India’s sugar due to lower freight costs, immediate delivery, and higher sucrose content,” said Praful Vithlani, Chairman of AISTA.
The ongoing exports have drawn attention from policymakers amid projections of lower sugar output. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Limited (NFCSF) estimates a 19% decline in production compared to the previous year. Current projections suggest total sugar production will reach 259 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) this year, down from 320 LMT last year.
The NFCSF noted that government export policies were formulated based on early production estimates. In December 2024, a forecast estimated sugar production at 333 LMT, slightly higher than the previous year. Based on this projection, the government approved the export of 20 LMT of sugar in two phases starting in January.
“The export policy helped improve sugar price realizations in the international market,” said Prakash Naiknaware, Managing Director of NFCSF.
However, industry experts point to challenges affecting sugarcane cultivation, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, which together account for about 80% of India’s sugar output. Factors such as pest infestations in Uttar Pradesh and premature flowering in Maharashtra and Karnataka have impacted sugarcane growth, potentially reducing yields.
As the season progresses, stakeholders continue to monitor production levels and market trends to assess their impact on domestic supply and pricing.
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