According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), global smartphone shipments are anticipated to rise by 2.3% year-over-year in 2025, reaching approximately 1.26 billion units. This marks the second consecutive year of growth, following a 6.1% increase in 2024.
A significant contributor to this growth is the acceleration of the Android market, particularly in China. National subsidies and a pent-up demand for device upgrades have reversed previous declines in the region. IDC forecasts that Android shipments will grow by 2.5% globally in 2025, with a notable 5.6% increase in China. This surge is largely attributed to government subsidy programs favoring Android devices.
Conversely, iOS shipments are expected to decline by 1.9% in China this year due to ongoing challenges. However, on a global scale, iOS is projected to grow by 1.8%, driven by strong performance in the U.S., Apple’s largest market, and significant growth in emerging markets like India and Indonesia. The recent introduction of the mid-priced iPhone 16E and the rollout of Apple Intelligence are anticipated to sustain demand and maintain elevated average selling prices (ASPs) for Apple, potentially capturing 45% of the market’s value share in 2025, despite accounting for only 19% of shipments.
In the United States, the smartphone market is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, even with the implementation of new 10% tariffs on goods from China, including smartphones. Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC, notes that an aging installed base ready for renewal will positively impact shipments for the year. While the new tariffs may slightly increase ASPs, most U.S. consumers purchase smartphones through installment plans, often combined with trade-ins via telecom channels. As a result, any increase in ASP is less likely to impact purchase decisions for most consumers.
Globally, smartphone ASPs are forecasted to grow slightly to $434 in 2025, despite the influx of low-end Android devices. This is due to the simultaneous premiumization at the high end of the market, a trend that continues robustly. ASPs are expected to remain relatively stable, with slight year-over-year declines throughout the forecast period, ending at $424 by 2029.
Overall, the global smartphone market is poised for modest growth, influenced by regional dynamics such as China’s Android market expansion and the impact of international trade policies.
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