Travel from Canada to the United States has declined significantly in recent months, with recent data and surveys indicating that political tensions, trade disputes, and concerns about immigration policies are playing a role in reshaping tourism flows across North America.
A study conducted by Longwoods International between April 11 and 15 shows that 60% of Canadian adults surveyed feel that recent U.S. trade and political actions make them less likely to visit the country for leisure in the coming year. The survey also found that 36% of respondents who had planned to travel to the U.S. have since canceled those plans.
This trend marks a sharp shift from previous years. In 2024, Canadians accounted for 20.4 million visitors and $20.5 billion in spending in the U.S., making them one of the country’s most significant international tourism markets. However, Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, forecasts a 20.2% decline in Canadian visits to the U.S. in 2025. This is expected to have a notable economic impact on travel-related sectors such as hospitality, retail, and entertainment.
Canadians appear to be redirecting their travel plans rather than forgoing travel entirely. According to the same survey, 40% of respondents now plan to travel within Canada, while 27% are considering international alternatives, such as Mexico and countries in Europe.
Sentiment also plays a role. Only 42% of surveyed Canadians believe the U.S. is welcoming to visitors from Canada, and just 38% feel the country values international travelers. Analysts suggest that such perceptions can have a significant influence on travel behavior and may take years to reverse.
Preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and Customs and Border Protection supports these findings. In March 2025, Canadian road travel to the U.S. fell by 32% compared to the previous year, while air travel from Canada declined by 13.5%. Other international markets also saw decreases: Western European visitors dropped 17%, South American arrivals fell 10%, and Asian visits declined for the second consecutive month.
According to the U.S. Travel Association (USTA), each 1% decrease in international tourism spending equates to a $1.8 billion reduction in export revenue. If the current 14% year-over-year decline in inbound travel continues throughout 2025, it could result in a $21 billion loss in tourism exports for the U.S.
Policy decisions and public perception are cited as contributing factors. Critics point to strong rhetoric around trade and immigration under the administration of President Donald Trump, including tariff threats and enforcement actions that some travelers perceive as unwelcoming. Incidents involving the detention of foreign nationals with valid visas have also received significant media attention.
Geoff Freeman, CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, noted in a recent interview that a lack of clear communication around U.S. border and visa policies has allowed negative narratives to gain traction. “In the absence of effective communication to explain what CBP is doing, what U.S. policy is, [and that] we want you to come, we’ve allowed this negative publicity to run rampant,” he said.
The impact is being felt in U.S. regions that rely heavily on Canadian tourism. Border towns, ski resorts, and cities like New York, Las Vegas, and Miami are reporting declines in visitor-related revenue. In some states, Canadian tourists typically make up as much as 30% of seasonal travel spending.
Industry leaders suggest that restoring travel confidence will require coordinated efforts. Potential steps include positive outreach campaigns, streamlined visa processes, and clear, welcoming messaging from officials. Competing destinations, including Mexico, Spain, and Canada itself, are actively marketing to international travelers with promises of ease and hospitality.
While the drop in Canadian tourism to the U.S. reflects a complex mix of factors, analysts warn that the longer it continues, the more difficult it may be to recover the trust and spending of one of the U.S.’s closest travel markets.
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